Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing up to 35 factors per game. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.

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Upcoming/Picks

By MarcDuck · Curated with AI assistance, the human formulates every pick

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 10:35 AM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

1 play · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

NBA Cavaliers ML Moneyline

NYK Knicks @ CLE Cavaliers · 5:00 PM PDT · Net +0.0 · Net +5.4
WHY
- Net rating edge +5.4
- Top-10 offense (120.7 ORtg)
WIN % 58.7%±9.0%

EV —

STAKE —

—

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

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THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +322

MLB
LAD RL COL @ LAD
+130 59.4%

MLB
MIN F5 MIN @ CHW
-120 69.2%

Combined Win % 41.1%

EV +73.3%

Payout (per $10) $42.17
02 2-LEG PARLAY +322

MLB
LAD RL COL @ LAD
+130 59.4%

MLB
SF F5 ARI @ SF
-120 69.2%

Combined Win % 41.1%

EV +73.3%

Payout (per $10) $42.17
03 3-LEG PARLAY +673

MLB
LAD RL COL @ LAD
+130 59.4%

MLB
MIN F5 MIN @ CHW
-120 69.2%

MLB
SF F5 ARI @ SF
-120 69.2%

Combined Win % 28.4%

EV +119.9%

Payout (per $10) $77.31
04 3-LEG PARLAY +673

MLB
LAD RL COL @ LAD
+130 59.4%

MLB
MIN F5 MIN @ CHW
-120 69.2%

MLB
NYM F5 CIN @ NYM
-120 68.1%

Combined Win % 28.0%

EV +116.4%

Payout (per $10) $77.31

Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card

52 MLB · 2 NBA

Season Record

255-221-9

53.6% win rate since 2026-04-22

Lock Pick Win %

36-17

67.9% on locks (53 graded)

Last 10

4-6

last 10 graded

Streak

current run

Confidence Avg

23%

model blend

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Upcoming/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology