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Casey Mize Picks Coverage

Every Casey Mize start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: San Diego Padres. Recent ERA: 3.38. Record: 4-7. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

Starts Tracked
14
Picks On Team
3
W-L-P
1-2-0
Hit Rate
33.3%

All Starts Covered

DateMatchupERA @ StartPick Result
2026-08-16San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians3.38—
2026-08-10San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers3.40—
2026-08-05San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks2.70—
2026-07-25Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals2.70—
2026-07-19Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels2.79—
2026-07-11Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies2.79—
2026-07-05Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers2.64—
2026-06-29Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees2.63—
2026-06-23Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees2.95—
2026-05-27Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels2.27W
2026-05-21Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians2.47L
2026-05-16Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays2.43L
2026-04-28Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves2.51—
2026-04-22Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers2.51—

About This Page

The table above lists every Casey Mize start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Casey Mize's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All San Diego Padres picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Casey Mize's starts?
Casey Mize's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Casey Mize exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
Where can I find past picks involving Casey Mize?
Every pick made on a Casey Mize start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.
How accurate are the predictions on Casey Mize?
Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.