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The day's 4★ and 5★ plays, ranked best to worst. Moneylines must clear a positive-EV test against the offered price. First-inning (NRFI/YRFI) plays qualify on the model's own gate instead: ≥60% probability with park and wind backing the side, which graded 80.3% on 61 picks.
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Model probability 69.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
Every game on today's slate. Stars show CONVICTION — win probability and value against the price combined — so a heavy favorite with no betting value can show 90%+ win probability but only 3★. Click "Why this pick" on any row.
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The model gives this pick a 55.0% win probability at the offered -120. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +0.8% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 86.0% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -625, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 72.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -325, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 64.6%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 64.0% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -198, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 62.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -179, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 61.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -175, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 61.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -174, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 59.6%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 58.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -156, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 58.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 58.5%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 56.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -143, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 56.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -144, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 56.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -137, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 56.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -136, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 55.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 55.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 55.5%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 55.5%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 55.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -131, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 54.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -126, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 54.6%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 54.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 54.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 54.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 53.9%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 53.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -121, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -155, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -12.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.0% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 52.9%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 52.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 50.8%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 50.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -112, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 50.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -7.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 50.1%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.
SEA@ATL
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IND@POR
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STL@TOR
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MIL@LAA
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MIN@SEA
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A handful of times each season, the model finds a single pick where the signal is so strong it's worth its own treatment. Full sabermetric writeup, line-shopping breakdown, Kelly stake sizing, and live-line monitoring through first pitch. Premium tier, early access via the waitlist.
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Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.
