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Today's/Picks

MON · APR 20 · 2026 Week 4 · Regular Season
First Pitch 3:40 PM PDT

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

8 plays · best → worst
  1. 01 ★★★★★
    @
    MLB Braves ML Moneyline
    PHI Phillies @ ATL Braves · 4:15 PM PDT · Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes
    WIN % 69.2%
    EV +15.7%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -149
  2. 02 ★★★★★
    @
    NBA Over 215.5 Total
    BOS Celtics @ PHI 76ers · 4:00 PM PDT · Net +10.0 · Net +0.8
    WIN % 60.4%
    EV +15.3%
    STAKE 4.2u
    -110
  3. 03 ★★★★★
    @
    MLB Rangers ML Moneyline
    ATH Athletics @ TEX Rangers · 5:05 PM PDT · Luis Severino vs Nathan Eovaldi
    WIN % 65.7%
    EV +11.7%
    STAKE 4.2u
    -143
  4. 04 ★★★★★
    @
    MLB Yankees ML Moneyline
    NYY Yankees @ HOU Astros · 5:10 PM PDT · Will Warren vs Lance McCullers Jr.
    WIN % 67.2%
    EV +10.3%
    STAKE 4.0u
    -156
  5. 05 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Orioles ML Moneyline
    BOS Red Sox @ BAL Orioles · 4:05 PM PDT · Brayan Bello vs Brandon Young
    WIN % 61.0%
    EV +11.0%
    STAKE 3.3u
    -122
  6. 06 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Dodgers ML Moneyline
    CHC Cubs @ LAD Dodgers · 7:15 PM PDT · Jameson Taillon vs Emmet Sheehan
    WIN % 66.0%
    EV +6.4%
    STAKE 2.6u
    -163
  7. 07 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Tigers ML Moneyline
    DET Tigers @ CIN Reds · 3:40 PM PDT · Framber Valdez vs Andrew Abbott
    WIN % 55.7%
    EV +3.0%
    STAKE 0.9u
    -118
  8. 08 ★★★★☆
    @
    MLB Mets ML Moneyline
    COL Rockies @ NYM Mets · 4:10 PM PDT · Michael Lorenzen vs Freddy Peralta
    WIN % 67.1%
    EV +-0.4%
    STAKE 0.0u
    -207

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 7 of 7
Filter by Sport
Market
Model Confidence
  1. 09 ★★★☆☆
    @
    NBA Over 206.5 Total
    LAL Lakers @ HOU Rockets · 5:00 PM PDT · Net +2.8 · Net +8.2
    WIN % 66.7%
    EV +27.3%
    STAKE 5.0u
    -110
  2. 10 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Guardians ML Moneyline
    CLE Guardians @ TOR Blue Jays · 4:07 PM PDT · Gavin Williams vs Max Scherzer
    WIN % 57.2%
    EV +4.5%
    STAKE 1.4u
    -121
  3. 11 ★★★☆☆
    @
    NBA Lakers +8.5 Spread
    LAL Lakers @ HOU Rockets · 5:00 PM PDT · Net +2.8 · Net +8.2
    WIN % 53.4%
    EV +1.9%
    STAKE 0.5u
    -110
  4. 12 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Twins ML Moneyline
    MIN Twins @ TB Rays · 4:10 PM PDT · Taj Bradley vs Drew Rasmussen
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -136
  5. 13 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Angels ML Moneyline
    LAA Angels @ KC Royals · 4:40 PM PDT · Yusei Kikuchi vs Noah Cameron
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -110
  6. 14 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Brewers ML Moneyline
    PIT Pirates @ MIL Brewers · 4:40 PM PDT · Paul Skenes vs Brandon Woodruff
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -126
  7. 15 ★★★☆☆
    @
    MLB Giants ML Moneyline
    MIA Marlins @ SF Giants · 7:15 PM PDT · Sandy Alcantara vs Adrian Houser
    WIN % 0.0%
    EV —
    STAKE —
    -112

Today's Card

Showing 13 of 13 · 0-0 today
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
35
27 MLB · 8 NBA
Season Record
19-10
65.5% win rate
Lock Pick Win %
73.7%
14-5 on locks
Last 10
5-5
+7.2u last 10
Streak
L4
current run
Confidence Avg
63%
model blend

Leader/board

Top 8 Cappers · Last 30 Days
#
Capper
W-L
Win%
Units
ROI
● Current Streak
W5
5 IN A ROW · +$623 ON L5
Win Loss Push

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
— 01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.
— 02
Market Read
We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.
— 03
Pace & Environment
MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).
— 04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.