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The day's 4★ and 5★ plays, ranked best to worst. Moneylines must clear a positive-EV test against the offered price. First-inning (NRFI/YRFI) plays qualify on the model's own gate instead: ≥60% probability with park and wind backing the side, which graded 80.3% on 61 picks.
Every game on today's slate. Stars show CONVICTION — win probability and value against the price combined — so a heavy favorite with no betting value can show 90%+ win probability but only 3★. Click "Why this pick" on any row.
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The model gives this pick a 83.6% win probability at the offered -500. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +0.4% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 69.7% win probability at the offered -211. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.7% per dollar. Stake 0.4u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 68.4% win probability at the offered -185. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +5.4% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 64.6% win probability at the offered -182. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +0.1% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 64.3% win probability at the offered -162. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +3.9% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 63.6% win probability at the offered -165. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.2% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 63.5% win probability at the offered -165. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.0% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 62.7% win probability at the offered -159. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.2% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 61.9% win probability at the offered -158. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.0% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 58.9% win probability at the offered -140. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.0% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 55.3% win probability at the offered -120. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.4% per dollar. Stake 0.2u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 54.8% win probability at the offered -112. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +3.7% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 54.1% win probability at the offered -112. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.3% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 52.4% win probability at the offered -106. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.8% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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Model probability 71.0%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 65.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -190, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 65.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 65.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 61.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 61.0%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 60.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 60.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -159, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 59.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -148, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 58.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -147, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 57.9%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 56.8%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 56.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 55.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -128, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 53.6%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 53.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 53.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 53.0%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 52.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -135, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -10.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 51.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 51.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 50.1%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.
IND@TOR
Scheduled
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MIA@PHI
3:40 PM PDT
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NYK@CHI
Scheduled
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LAD@COL
5:40 PM PDT
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SF@CLE
3:40 PM PDT
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A handful of times each season, the model finds a single pick where the signal is so strong it's worth its own treatment. Full sabermetric writeup, line-shopping breakdown, Kelly stake sizing, and live-line monitoring through first pitch. Premium tier, early access via the waitlist.
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Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.
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