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The day's 4★ and 5★ plays, ranked best to worst. Moneylines must clear a positive-EV test against the offered price. First-inning (NRFI/YRFI) plays qualify on the model's own gate instead: ≥60% probability with park and wind backing the side, which graded 80.3% on 61 picks.
Every game on today's slate. Stars show CONVICTION — win probability and value against the price combined — so a heavy favorite with no betting value can show 90%+ win probability but only 3★. Click "Why this pick" on any row.
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The model gives this pick a 55.4% win probability at the offered -120. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.6% per dollar. Stake 0.2u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 54.6% win probability at the offered -120. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +0.1% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 67.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -224, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 66.8%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 65.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -207, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 62.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -184, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 62.0%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 59.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -156, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 58.1%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 57.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -143, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 56.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -149, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 56.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -136, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 56.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 55.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -132, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 55.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -132, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 54.5%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 54.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 54.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 53.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 53.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 53.0%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 52.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 51.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 50.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -110, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 50.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.
LAD@CIN
Bot 9th
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SD@COL
Mid 1st
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CHW@CLE
Bot 6th
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SF@STL
Top 5th
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BAL@NYM
Top 6th
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A handful of times each season, the model finds a single pick where the signal is so strong it's worth its own treatment. Full sabermetric writeup, line-shopping breakdown, Kelly stake sizing, and live-line monitoring through first pitch. Premium tier, early access via the waitlist.
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Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.
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