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No games on today's slate. Check back after 8 AM PT.
The day's 4★ and 5★ plays, ranked best to worst. Moneylines must clear a positive-EV test against the offered price. First-inning (NRFI/YRFI) plays qualify on the model's own gate instead: ≥60% probability with park and wind backing the side, which graded 80.3% on 61 picks.
Every game on today's slate. Stars show CONVICTION — win probability and value against the price combined — so a heavy favorite with no betting value can show 90%+ win probability but only 3★. Click "Why this pick" on any row.
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The model gives this pick a 55.0% win probability at the offered -120. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +0.8% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 75.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -354, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 73.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -313, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 64.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -193, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 64.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -199, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 63.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 62.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -181, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 59.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 59.6%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 59.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -149, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 58.8%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 57.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 57.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -135, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 57.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -144, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 57.0%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 56.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 56.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 56.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 55.8%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 55.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -136, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 55.6%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 54.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -124, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 54.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -125, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 54.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 54.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 52.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 52.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -114, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 51.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 51.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -117, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 51.1%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 50.9%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 50.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -115, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 50.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -110, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.
COL@NYY
Top 7th
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CIN@LAD
7:10 PM PDT
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WSH@SD
6:40 PM PDT
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CHC@MIL
End 4th
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TOR@ATH
6:40 PM PDT
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A handful of times each season, the model finds a single pick where the signal is so strong it's worth its own treatment. Full sabermetric writeup, line-shopping breakdown, Kelly stake sizing, and live-line monitoring through first pitch. Premium tier, early access via the waitlist.
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Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.
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