Sign up with your email to start submitting picks, tracking your record, and climbing the leaderboard.
We sent a 6-digit code to . Enter it below to confirm your address.
This is how you'll show up on the leaderboard. 3–20 characters, letters, numbers, and underscores only.
Email:
Your picks will now be tracked on the leaderboard.
The model's top picks: 5★ confidence (≥65% win probability) with positive EV at the offered price. All sports. Ranked best to worst by edge.
@
The model gives this pick a 76.7% win probability at the offered -305. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.8% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
@
The model gives this pick a 67.3% win probability at the offered -170. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +6.8% per dollar. Stake 0.2u at 1/8-Kelly.
Every game on today's slate. Stars show model win-probability confidence: 5★ ≥ 65%, 4★ ≥ 60%, 3★ ≥ 55%, 2★ ≥ 50%. Click "Why this pick" on any row.
@
The model gives this pick a 62.2% win probability at the offered -161. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +0.8% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
@
The model gives this pick a 61.7% win probability at the offered -149. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +3.1% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
@
The model gives this pick a 57.7% win probability at the offered -131. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.8% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
@
The model gives this pick a 57.6% win probability at the offered -132. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.2% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
@
The model gives this pick a 55.8% win probability at the offered -122. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.6% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
@
The model gives this pick a 54.0% win probability at the offered -111. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.7% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
@
The model gives this pick a 53.7% win probability at the offered -110. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.5% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
@
The model gives this pick a 67.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -224, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
@
The model gives this pick a 64.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -186, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
@
The model gives this pick a 62.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -173, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
@
The model gives this pick a 59.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -156, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
@
The model gives this pick a 58.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -143, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
@
The model gives this pick a 57.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -144, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
@
The model gives this pick a 51.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -123, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -6.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
@
The model gives this pick a 51.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -112, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.
A handful of times each season, the model finds a single pick where the signal is so strong it's worth its own treatment. Full sabermetric writeup, line-shopping breakdown, Kelly stake sizing, and live-line monitoring through first pitch. Premium tier, early access via the waitlist.
No spam. Notified when we ship the first Lock of the Century pick. You can unsubscribe with one click.
Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.
