Free MLB & NBA Picks by MarcDuck, 57 AI-Assisted Predictions for Friday, July 10, 2026

THE LOCKS

4★ and 5★ plays only. Ranked best to worst, 5★ first, then by model win probability.

11 plays · best → worst

01 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB F5 Over 5.5 F5 Total

CHC Cubs @ CIN Reds · 4:10 PM PDT · Shota Imanaga vs Hunter Greene
WHY
- FIP edge +18.54 — your starter projects better
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.73 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.21 R
WIN % 69.2%±10.0%

EV +32.1%

STAKE 4.4u

-110
02 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Padres F5 First 5 Innings

TOR Blue Jays @ SD Padres · 6:40 PM PDT · Shane Bieber vs JP Sears
WHY
- FIP edge +4.30 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.23 R
WIN % 67.5%±6.3%

EV +23.8%

STAKE 3.6u

-120
03 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Dodgers F5 First 5 Innings

ARI Diamondbacks @ LAD Dodgers · 7:10 PM PDT · Eduardo Rodriguez vs Kyle Hurt
WHY
- FIP edge +1.31 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +0.89 R
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.96 R
WIN % 67.3%±6.0%

EV +23.3%

STAKE 3.5u

-120
04 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Twins F5 First 5 Innings

LAA Angels @ MIN Twins · 5:10 PM PDT · Grayson Rodriguez vs Zebby Matthews
WHY
- FIP edge +3.63 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.52 R
- Recent form 7-3 (last 10)
WIN % 66.2%±3.6%

EV +21.4%

STAKE 3.2u

-120
05 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Braves F5 First 5 Innings

ATL Braves @ STL Cardinals · 5:15 PM PDT · Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.54 R
- FIP edge +0.64 — your starter projects better
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.50 R
WIN % 64.7%±9.2%

EV +18.7%

STAKE 2.8u

-120
06 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Yankees F5 First 5 Innings

NYY Yankees @ WSH Nationals · 3:45 PM PDT · Ryan Weathers vs Carson Palmquist
WHY
- FIP edge +2.41 — your starter projects better
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +1.32 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.57 R
WIN % 62.9%±6.8%

EV +15.4%

STAKE 2.3u

-120
07 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Giants ML Moneyline

COL Rockies @ SF Giants · 7:15 PM PDT · Tanner Gordon vs Robbie Ray
WHY
- SP career vs opp team +1.17 R
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +1.20 R
- Catcher framing +0.65 R
WIN % 70.8%±8.7%

EV +16.3%

STAKE 0.4u

-156
08 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Astros F5 First 5 Innings

HOU Astros @ TEX Rangers · 5:05 PM PDT · Hunter Brown vs Cal Quantrill
WHY
- FIP edge +1.64 — your starter projects better
- SP career vs opp team +1.00 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.77 R
WIN % 61.3%±3.7%

EV +12.3%

STAKE 1.9u

-120
09 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Marlins ML Moneyline

CLE Guardians @ MIA Marlins · 4:10 PM PDT · Parker Messick vs Sandy Alcantara
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.41 R
- Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
WIN % 60.0%±4.6%

EV +9.3%

STAKE 0.1u

-122
10 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB Orioles ML Moneyline

KC Royals @ BAL Orioles · 4:05 PM PDT · Luinder Avila vs Brandon Young
WHY
- Lineup-vs-hand edge +0.36 R
- Bullpen quality edge +0.15 R
- Catcher framing +0.22 R
WIN % 64.6%±3.3%

EV +7.9%

STAKE 0.4u

-149
11 ★★★★★ LOCK
@

MLB White Sox ML Moneyline

ATH Athletics @ CHW White Sox · 4:40 PM PDT · Jacob Lopez vs Sean Burke
WHY
- FIP edge +2.43 — your starter projects better
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.49 R
- Recent form 4-6 (last 10)
WIN % 65.0%±3.7%

EV +2.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-175

THE CARD

Every 3★, 4★, and 5★ play on today's board. Ranked by confidence and edge, filter by market, star tier, or sport.

Showing 9 of 9

12 ★★★★☆ LOCK
@

MLB F5 Under 3.5 F5 Total

BOS Red Sox @ NYM Mets · 4:15 PM PDT · Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLean
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.27 R
- Catcher framing +0.10 R
WIN % 59.7%±0.5%

EV +13.9%

STAKE 1.9u

-110
13 ★★★★☆ LOCK
@

MLB Phillies ML Moneyline

PHI Phillies @ DET Tigers · 3:40 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Jack Flaherty
WHY
- FIP edge +2.19 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.23 R
- Catcher framing +0.43 R
WIN % 57.8%±5.6%

EV +14.5%

STAKE 0.4u

-119
14 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Rays F5 First 5 Innings

SEA Mariners @ TB Rays · 4:10 PM PDT · Luis Castillo vs Nick Martinez
WHY
- Catcher framing +0.28 R
WIN % 61.2%±4.0%

EV +12.2%

STAKE 1.8u

-120
15 ★★★★☆ LOCK
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MLB Mariners ML Moneyline

SEA Mariners @ TB Rays · 4:10 PM PDT · Luis Castillo vs Nick Martinez
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.27 R
WIN % 55.4%±4.0%

EV +10.2%

STAKE 0.3u

-120
16 ★★★★☆
@

MLB Mets ML Moneyline

BOS Red Sox @ NYM Mets · 4:15 PM PDT · Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLean
WHY
- Bullpen quality edge +0.27 R
- Catcher framing +0.10 R
WIN % 61.6%±0.5%

EV +1.1%

STAKE 0.0u

-156
17 ★★★☆☆
@

MLB Over 8.5 Total

SEA Mariners @ TB Rays · 4:10 PM PDT · Luis Castillo vs Nick Martinez
WHY
- Opp SP slumping (last 3 starts) +0.27 R
WIN % 51.7%±4.0%

EV +-1.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
18 ★★★☆☆
@

MLB Over 9.5 Total

PHI Phillies @ DET Tigers · 3:40 PM PDT · Aaron Nola vs Jack Flaherty
WHY
- FIP edge +2.19 — your starter projects better
- Bullpen quality edge +0.23 R
- Catcher framing +0.43 R
WIN % 50.7%±5.6%

EV +-3.2%

STAKE 0.0u

-110
19 ★★★☆☆
@

MLB Rays +1.5 Run Line

SEA Mariners @ TB Rays · 4:10 PM PDT · Luis Castillo vs Nick Martinez
WHY
- Catcher framing +0.28 R
WIN % 60.9%±4.0%

EV +-5.3%

STAKE 0.0u

-180
20 ★★★☆☆
@

MLB Red Sox +1.5 Run Line

BOS Red Sox @ NYM Mets · 4:15 PM PDT · Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLean
WHY
- Defense (OAA) +0.44 R
- Hot bat (last 14d) +0.27 R
- Recent form 8-2 (last 10)
WIN % 60.2%±0.5%

EV +-6.4%

STAKE 0.0u

-180

THE PARLAYS

Best two-leg and three-leg parlays auto-built from today's highest-EV plays. Legs are de-duplicated by game so no correlated picks. Combined odds and win probability assume leg independence.

4 parlays · 2 two-leg + 2 three-leg

01 2-LEG PARLAY +240

MLB
CHC ML CHC @ CIN
-117 71.5%

MLB
SD F5 TOR @ SD
-120 67.5%

Combined Win % 48.3%

EV +64.1%

Payout (per $10) $34.00
02 2-LEG PARLAY +240

MLB
CHC ML CHC @ CIN
-117 71.5%

MLB
LAD F5 ARI @ LAD
-120 67.3%

Combined Win % 48.1%

EV +63.6%

Payout (per $10) $34.00
03 3-LEG PARLAY +523

MLB
CHC ML CHC @ CIN
-117 71.5%

MLB
SD F5 TOR @ SD
-120 67.5%

MLB
LAD F5 ARI @ LAD
-120 67.3%

Combined Win % 32.5%

EV +102.5%

Payout (per $10) $62.34
04 3-LEG PARLAY +523

MLB
CHC ML CHC @ CIN
-117 71.5%

MLB
SD F5 TOR @ SD
-120 67.5%

MLB
MIN F5 LAA @ MIN
-120 66.2%

Combined Win % 31.9%

EV +99.2%

Payout (per $10) $62.34

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model

— 01

Pitching & Matchups

MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. NBA: player usage, rest advantage, back-to-back penalties.

— 02

Market Read

We track line movement across 8 books. Reverse line moves and steam trigger alerts that factor into our final confidence score — same for MLB runlines and NBA spreads.

— 03

Pace & Environment

MLB: wind, humidity, park HR/9 baseline for O/U. NBA: pace differential, altitude, and officiating crew pace (top-vs-bottom refs swing totals 4+ pts).

— 04

Fatigue & Availability

MLB: bullpen pitch counts over 3 days, leverage spots. NBA: injury reports scraped 30 min before tip, B2B net rating, minutes load on stars.

Today's/Picks

THE LOCKS

THE CARD

THE PARLAYS

Today's Card

By the / Numbers

Leader/board

How We / Pick

MLB Picks by Type

By Team — AL East / Central

By Team — AL West / NL East

By Team — NL Central / West

About + Methodology