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No games on today's slate. Check back after 8 AM PT.
The day's 4★ and 5★ plays, ranked best to worst. Moneylines must clear a positive-EV test against the offered price. First-inning (NRFI/YRFI) plays qualify on the model's own gate instead: ≥60% probability with park and wind backing the side, which graded 80.3% on 61 picks.
Every game on today's slate. Stars show CONVICTION — win probability and value against the price combined — so a heavy favorite with no betting value can show 90%+ win probability but only 3★. Click "Why this pick" on any row.
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The model gives this pick a 55.4% win probability at the offered -120. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +1.5% per dollar. Stake 0.2u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 54.9% win probability at the offered -120. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +0.7% per dollar. Stake 0.1u at 1/8-Kelly.
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Model probability 72.5%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 66.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -209, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 66.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -206, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 66.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 66.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -205, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 64.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -199, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 64.5%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 64.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -192, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 63.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -187, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 62.9%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 62.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 62.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -175, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 61.8%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 60.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -168, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 59.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -148, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 59.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -156, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 58.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -142, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 57.9%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 57.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -137, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 57.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 56.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -131, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 56.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 56.0%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 55.5%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 54.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -124, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 54.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 52.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 52.0% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -6.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 50.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -6.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 50.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -114, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 50.5%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 50.3%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 50.1%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 50.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -8.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 50.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -8.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.
LAD@MIA
4:10 PM PDT
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CIN@MIL
4:40 PM PDT
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KC@BOS
4:10 PM PDT
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PIT@CHC
11:20 AM PDT
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PHI@ATL
4:15 PM PDT
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A handful of times each season, the model finds a single pick where the signal is so strong it's worth its own treatment. Full sabermetric writeup, line-shopping breakdown, Kelly stake sizing, and live-line monitoring through first pitch. Premium tier, early access via the waitlist.
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