What is Bookie Bullies' MLB picks track record?

268 graded picks as of 2026-05-13, with a 54.4% hit rate and +8.78u units net at recommended 1/8-Kelly stakes (+9.8% ROI). Updated daily, no cherry-picking, every pick logged win or loss.

How does Bookie Bullies grade picks?

Every pick is auto-graded against the final game result. Wins, losses, and pushes are tracked separately. Units are calculated using the actual American odds at pick time and the recommended 1/8-Kelly stake. Pushes return the stake.

Are Bookie Bullies picks profitable long term?

Current cumulative units: +8.78u. Cumulative ROI: +9.8% across 268 graded picks. Long-term profitability depends on the model maintaining its edge and the user betting at recommended stakes. We publish CLV (closing line value) per pick as a more reliable predictive metric than recent W-L.

Why do you publish losing picks?

Because hiding them is the most common red flag in this industry. Every pick we've ever published is graded honestly. If our model goes cold, you'll see it here first. That's how a verifiable track record works.

● TRACK RECORD · UPDATED DAILY · NO HIDING

Honest Wins + Losses

Every graded pick we've ever published, fully audited. No filters, no cherry-picking, no "hot streak" highlight reel. 268 graded picks as of 2026-05-13.

Total Graded

268

143-120-5

Hit Rate

54.4%

decided picks only

Units P/L

+8.78u

at recommended stake

ROI

+9.8%

profit / units staked

How to read this: "Hit rate" is wins ÷ (wins + losses), pushes excluded. "Units" sums what 1u stakes returned at our 1/8-Kelly recommended size. "ROI" is profit divided by total units staked. Negative numbers mean we've lost money on those picks. We publish them anyway because that's what an honest track record looks like.

Cumulative Units P/L

Live running total of units won/lost across every graded pick. Climbing line = positive ROI accumulating. Updated daily.

By Sport

Sport	N	W-L-P	Hit %	Units	ROI
MLB	230	123-102-5	54.7%	+8.78u	+16.3%
NBA	38	20-18-0	52.6%	+0.00u	+0.0%

By Pick Type

Type	N	W-L-P	Hit %	Units	ROI
ML	268	143-120-5	54.4%	+8.78u	+9.8%

By Confidence Tier

Stars	N	W-L-P	Hit %	Units	ROI
5★	49	34-15-0	69.4%	+6.09u	+21.3%
4★	121	62-56-3	52.5%	+3.62u	+8.4%
3★	48	23-24-1	48.9%	-4.66u	-64.7%
2★	42	20-21-1	48.8%	+3.73u	+36.2%
1★	8	4-4-0	50.0%	+0.00u	+0%

Rolling Windows

Window	N	W-L-P	Hit %	Units	ROI
Last 7 days	44	23-21-0	52.3%	+0.00u	+0.0%
Last 14 days	156	80-72-4	52.6%	-1.10u	-19.3%
Last 30 days	268	143-120-5	54.4%	+8.78u	+9.8%
Last 90 days	268	143-120-5	54.4%	+8.78u	+9.8%

Calibration disclosure: a probabilistic model that's well-calibrated should hit its 60% picks ~60% of the time, its 55% picks ~55% of the time, etc. If our hit rates by confidence tier diverge from those targets, that's drift we need to fix. Tracking this publicly means we can't hide from it.

Cite This Page

Writing about AI sports betting models? Use this attribution + auditable numbers:

APA-style citation:
MarcDuck. (2026). Bookie Bullies Track Record. Retrieved 2026-05-13, from https://www.bookiebullies.com/track-record.html

Citable facts as of 2026-05-13:

268 graded picks · 143-120-5
Hit rate: 54.4%
Units P/L: +8.78u · ROI: +9.8%
Updated daily at 8 AM Pacific Time
Public picks log: /picks_log.jsonl