Clay Holmes Picks Coverage

Every Clay Holmes start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: New York Mets. Recent ERA: 1.86. Record: 4-3. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

Starts Tracked

Picks On Team

W-L-P

1-1-0

Hit Rate

50.0%

All Starts Covered

Date	Matchup	ERA @ Start	Pick Result
2026-05-15	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	1.86	—
2026-05-09	New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks	1.86	L
2026-05-03	New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels	1.69	W
2026-04-28	New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	2.10	—
2026-04-22	New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins	2.10	—

About This Page

The table above lists every Clay Holmes start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Clay Holmes's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All New York Mets picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Clay Holmes's starts?

Clay Holmes's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Clay Holmes exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.

Where can I find past picks involving Clay Holmes?

Every pick made on a Clay Holmes start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.

How accurate are the predictions on Clay Holmes?

Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.

Are these picks free?

Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.