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Connelly Early Picks Coverage

Every Connelly Early start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: Boston Red Sox. Recent ERA: 3.44. Record: 7-5. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

Starts Tracked
11
Picks On Team
3
W-L-P
0-0-0
Hit Rate
0%

All Starts Covered

DateMatchupERA @ StartPick Result
2026-06-30Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals3.44
2026-06-25Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees3.59
2026-06-08Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays3.30
2026-06-02Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles3.26
2026-05-27Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves2.95
2026-05-20Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals3.33PENDING
2026-05-15Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves3.16
2026-05-08Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays3.16PENDING
2026-05-02Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros3.79PENDING
2026-04-26Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles2.84
2026-04-21Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees2.29

About This Page

The table above lists every Connelly Early start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Connelly Early's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All Boston Red Sox picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Connelly Early's starts?
Connelly Early's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Connelly Early exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
Where can I find past picks involving Connelly Early?
Every pick made on a Connelly Early start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.
How accurate are the predictions on Connelly Early?
Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.