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Gavin Williams Picks Coverage

Every Gavin Williams start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: Cleveland Guardians. Recent ERA: 3.89. Record: 9-4. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

Starts Tracked
11
Picks On Team
5
W-L-P
2-2-0
Hit Rate
50.0%

All Starts Covered

DateMatchupERA @ StartPick Result
2026-07-03Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox3.89
2026-06-28Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners3.81
2026-06-22Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox3.82
2026-06-08Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees3.32
2026-06-03Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees3.20
2026-05-27Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals3.07W
2026-05-22Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies3.25PENDING
2026-05-17Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds3.67W
2026-05-10Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins3.74L
2026-05-05Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals2.70L
2026-04-24Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays3.28

About This Page

The table above lists every Gavin Williams start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Gavin Williams's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All Cleveland Guardians picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Gavin Williams's starts?
Gavin Williams's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Gavin Williams exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.
Where can I find past picks involving Gavin Williams?
Every pick made on a Gavin Williams start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.
How accurate are the predictions on Gavin Williams?
Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.