Steven Matz Picks Coverage

Every Steven Matz start we've projected and graded in the last 120 days. Current team: Tampa Bay Rays. Recent ERA: 5.48. Record: 4-3. Each start links to the matchup's permanent record with our model's prediction and signals at the time.

Starts Tracked

Picks On Team

W-L-P

2-1-0

Hit Rate

66.7%

All Starts Covered

Date	Matchup	ERA @ Start	Pick Result
2026-06-02	Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers	5.48	—
2026-05-27	Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles	4.67	L
2026-05-20	Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	3.70	W
2026-05-03	Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants	3.86	W
2026-04-27	Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians	4.31	—
2026-04-21	Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati Reds	3.80	—

About This Page

The table above lists every Steven Matz start that appeared in Bookie Bullies' daily MLB coverage. ERA shown is what the model used at that point in the season, not a retroactive value. The "Pick Result" column reflects whether a pick we made on Steven Matz's team won, lost, or pushed. Pushes count separately. "Pending" means the game hasn't graded yet.

All Tampa Bay Rays picks → See our full model in the methodology or aggregate record on the track record page.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the model rate Steven Matz's starts?

Steven Matz's starts are scored by FIP and xFIP (park-and-league-adjusted), recent form trend (last 3 starts ERA delta vs season), velocity drop penalty when last start had velo decline, home/road and day/night splits, opposing lineup xwOBA vs handedness, and pitcher H2H history vs the opposing team regressed at 50 TBF. The model also factors bullpen quality (in case Steven Matz exits early), park factors, weather, and umpire tendencies.

Where can I find past picks involving Steven Matz?

Every pick made on a Steven Matz start is logged on this page and at /track-record.html. Each row in the table above links to a permanent record with the model's full signals at pick time, the result, and the ESPN comparison probability.

How accurate are the predictions on Steven Matz?

Per-pitcher accuracy isn't a large enough sample yet to publish individually. Aggregate accuracy lives on the /track-record.html page with per-bucket calibration. The Brier score audit catches pitcher-specific calibration drift if it appears.

Are these picks free?

Yes. Every pick on Bookie Bullies is free. No signup, no paywall. Full model output (probability, EV, recommended stake) is visible on every pick page.