Philadelphia Phillies Run Line at -180
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins. Played at loanDepot park. Starting pitchers: Aaron Nola for PHI, Janson Junk for MIA. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- Signal snapshot was not captured on this pick (legacy entry).
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Philadelphia Phillies pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.5 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.17 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-04
- New York Yankees Moneyline Won
- Atlanta Braves Moneyline Lost
- Miami Marlins Moneyline Lost
- Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline Won
- New York Yankees Run Line Won