Heads-up Picks made by MarcDuck with AI assistance, weighing pitching, bullpen, park and weather inputs. Predictions are not 100% correct. This is NOT financial advice. 21+ entertainment only. Full disclaimer.
Today's Card · Locked In

Today's/Picks & Analysis

FRI · OCT 9 · 2026 Week 29 · Regular Season
Schedule TBD
Updated 11:30 AM pt
● PUBLIC TRACK RECORD321 first-inning plays·62.9% hit·191 staked picks·43.5% hit·-8.2% ROI·-17.08u(173 Kelly-tracked)View track record →
● TODAY'S BEST BETS · BY MARCDUCK

Top 3 / Today

No games on today's slate. Check back after the next refresh.

Stake Calculator 1u = 1% of bankroll · 1/8-Kelly recommendations
$ bankroll
1u = $10

THE LOCKS

The day's 5★ plays, ranked best to worst. Moneylines must clear a positive-EV test against the offered price. First-inning (NRFI/YRFI) plays qualify on the model's own gate instead: a high model probability (see the Track Record page for graded results).

0 plays · best → worst
No 5★ +EV locks on today's board. Check back after the next refresh.

THE CARD

Every game on today's slate. Stars show CONVICTION (win probability and value against the price combined) so a heavy favorite with no betting value can show 90%+ win probability but only 3★. Click "Why this pick" on any row.

Showing 0 of 0
+EV = bet has positive expected value. Take it. −EV = model favors this team but the market priced it correctly. Pass. What is EV? →
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP PICKS

This week's most likely college football winners, ranked best to worst. Each pick is the betting favorite, and win % is the sportsbook's own moneyline with the house cut removed. We tested our ratings against simply taking the favorite on two seasons of games, and the favorite picked more winners. These are straight-up winner picks, not value bets: the price column shows what each one costs.

10 of 55 games · best → worst
  1. 01
    @
    NCAAF UNT to win Winner
    CLT @ UNT · Sat Oct 10 12:30 PM PT
    WIN %94.6%
    SPREAD-28.5
    PRICE-4500
  2. 02
    @
    NCAAF TOL to win Winner
    BUFF @ TOL · Sat Oct 10 12:30 PM PT
    WIN %90.4%
    SPREAD-20.5
    PRICE-1600
  3. 03
    @
    NCAAF ASU to win Winner
    HAW @ ASU · Sat Oct 10 7:30 PM PT
    WIN %90.4%
    SPREAD-20.5
    PRICE-1600
  4. 04
    @
    NCAAF ORST to win Winner
    SDSU @ ORST · Sat Oct 10 3:00 PM PT
    WIN %84.7%
    SPREAD-15.5
    PRICE-750
  5. 05
    @
    NCAAF UTAH to win Winner
    KU @ #12 UTAH · Sat Oct 10 7:15 PM PT
    WIN %84.7%
    SPREAD-15.5
    PRICE-750
  6. 06
    @
    NCAAF MEM to win Winner
    UAB @ MEM · Sat Oct 10 4:00 PM PT
    WIN %82.2%
    SPREAD-14
    PRICE-600
  7. 07
    @
    NCAAF WMU to win Winner
    KENT @ WMU · Sat Oct 10 12:30 PM PT
    WIN %81.7%
    SPREAD-13.5
    PRICE-575
  8. 08
    @
    NCAAF TENN to win Winner
    #15 TENN @ ARK · Sat Oct 10 1:15 PM PT
    WIN %81.2%
    SPREAD-13.5
    PRICE-550
  9. 09
    @
    NCAAF ORE to win Winner
    NEB @ #13 ORE · Sat Oct 17 9:00 PM PT
    WIN %80.4%
    SPREAD-12.5
    PRICE-520
  10. 10
    @
    NCAAF FLA to win Winner
    SC @ #16 FLA · Sat Oct 10 9:45 AM PT
    WIN %79.1%
    SPREAD-11.5
    PRICE-470
Full college football board →

NFL TOP PICKS

This week's most likely NFL winners, ranked best to worst. Win % comes from the sportsbook line, which already accounts for each team's projected starting quarterback. These are straight-up winner picks, not value bets: on a big favorite, the price already reflects the odds. Every pick is graded in public.

5 of 15 games · best → worst
  1. 01
    @
    NFL HOU to win Winner
    HOU @ TEN · Sun Oct 11 10:00 AM PT · C.J. Stroud vs Cam Ward
    WIN %74.7%
    SPREAD-7.5
    O/U37.5
  2. 02
    @
    NFL JAX to win Winner
    PHI @ JAX · Sun Oct 11 6:30 AM PT · Jalen Hurts vs Trevor Lawrence
    WIN %74.6%
    SPREAD-7.5
    O/U41.5
  3. 03
    @
    NFL CIN to win Winner
    CIN @ MIA · Sun Oct 11 10:00 AM PT · Joe Burrow vs Malik Willis
    WIN %71.7%
    SPREAD-6.5
    O/U43.5
  4. 04
    @
    NFL DET to win Winner
    DET @ ARI · Sun Oct 11 1:25 PM PT · Jared Goff vs Jacoby Brissett
    WIN %68.8%
    SPREAD-5.5
    O/U54.5
  5. 05
    @
    NFL WAS to win Winner
    NYG @ WAS · Sun Oct 11 10:00 AM PT · Jameis Winston vs Jayden Daniels
    WIN %65.6%
    SPREAD-4.5
    O/U41.5
All 15 NFL picks, spread leans and record →

Every Game · Full Detail

All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.

Showing 0 of 0 · today's slate
Season Snapshot

By the / Numbers

Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.

Today's Card
0
no plays today
Lock Record
11-5
lock record since 2026-04-22
Lock Pick Win %
68.8%
16 locks graded
Last 10
5-5
+1.6u last 10
Streak
W2
current run
Confidence Avg
0%
model blend

The / Receipts

Last 10 graded · $100 flat per pick
LAST 7 DAYS
+$0
RECORD
0–0
UNITS
+0.00u
09/23MLBBOS ML-131W+$76
08/29MLBATL ML-218W+$46
08/22WNBANYK ML-162W+$62
08/20WNBAIND ML-155L−$100
08/18WNBALV ML-162L−$100
08/18WNBANYK ML-175L−$100
08/18MLBPHI ML-210W+$48
08/11WNBALA ML-135L−$100
08/10MLBARI ML-204W+$49
08/09WNBAMIN ML-225W+$44
Every pick is logged before first pitch. Check the math yourself on the full track record.

How We / Pick

No touts · No tails · Just the model
01
Pitching & Matchups
MLB: SP xFIP, SIERA, velocity trends weighted by park & lineup wOBA vs. handedness. College football: opponent-adjusted power ratings are computed from final scores, but no college football picks are published.
02
Market Read
Line movement is shown on pick cards as context when a steam move is detected. It does not feed the moneyline probability.
03
Pace & Environment
MLB: weather and park factors feed the first-inning model. College football: no over/under leans are published.
04
Fatigue & Availability
MLB: bullpen fatigue and bullpen quality. College football: teams under 8 rated games are declined outright, and no college football picks are published.