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No games on today's slate. Check back after 8 AM PT.
The day's 4★ and 5★ plays, ranked best to worst. Moneylines must clear a positive-EV test against the offered price. First-inning (NRFI/YRFI) plays qualify on the model's own gate instead: ≥60% probability with park and wind backing the side, which graded 80.3% on 61 picks.
Every game on today's slate. Stars show CONVICTION — win probability and value against the price combined — so a heavy favorite with no betting value can show 90%+ win probability but only 3★. Click "Why this pick" on any row.
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Model probability 68.7%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 65.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -203, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 65.2%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 64.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -206, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 62.1%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 62.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -181, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 60.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -171, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 59.6%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 59.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -156, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 57.9%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 56.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 55.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -131, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 55.4%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 54.7% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -126, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 54.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -0.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -126, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 53.1%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 52.8%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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Model probability 52.6%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 52.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -6.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -6.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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Model probability 50.8%. Edge versus market is approximately break-even at the offered price.
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The model gives this pick a 50.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -118, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -7.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.
WSH@SD
2:10 PM PDT
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TOR@ATH
7:05 PM PDT
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LAA@BOS
10:35 AM PDT
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ATL@PHI
10:05 AM PDT
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CIN@LAD
6:10 PM PDT
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A handful of times each season, the model finds a single pick where the signal is so strong it's worth its own treatment. Full sabermetric writeup, line-shopping breakdown, Kelly stake sizing, and live-line monitoring through first pitch. Premium tier, early access via the waitlist.
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Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.
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