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The model's top picks: 5★ confidence (≥65% win probability) with positive EV at the offered price. All sports. Ranked best to worst by edge.
Every game on today's slate. Stars show model win-probability confidence: 5★ ≥ 65%, 4★ ≥ 60%, 3★ ≥ 55%, 2★ ≥ 50%. Click "Why this pick" on any row.
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The model gives this pick a 77.7% win probability at the offered -310. That's higher than what the market price implies, so betting at this number is +EV: if you placed this bet 100 times, you'd average a profit of +2.7% per dollar. Stake 0.0u at 1/8-Kelly.
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The model gives this pick a 71.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -270, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.1% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 59.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -156, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 58.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -149, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 56.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -175, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -11.9% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 55.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -131, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 54.2% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -126, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.8% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.9% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -126, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.3% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.8% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -126, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.5% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.1% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -120, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.0% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -118, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 53.0% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -122, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -3.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.6% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -115, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -1.6% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 52.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -122, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.4% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -110, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -2.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 51.3% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -115, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -4.2% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 50.5% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -122, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -8.0% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
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The model gives this pick a 50.4% win probability — meaning the model favors this side to win. But at -115, the market is asking you to pay a price that implies an even higher win rate. EV -5.7% means: even if the model is right, you'd lose money long-term at this price. Pass.
All matchups today with our pick, the projected score, both starting pitchers, and the market line. Filter or search below.
A handful of times each season, the model finds a single pick where the signal is so strong it's worth its own treatment. Full sabermetric writeup, line-shopping breakdown, Kelly stake sizing, and live-line monitoring through first pitch. Premium tier, early access via the waitlist.
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Today's edge, season ledger, hot/cold markers. Filter bar above swaps these per sport.
