San Diego Padres Run Line at -180
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres. Played at Petco Park. Starting pitchers: Kyle Leahy for STL, Walker Buehler for SD. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- Signal snapshot was not captured on this pick (legacy entry).
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The San Diego Padres pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.15 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.72 expected runs.
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