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● PICK PERMALINK · WON · 2026-05-13

Cleveland Guardians Run Line at +130

Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians · MLB Baseball

Result Won
Model Prob 38.2%
Odds (American) +130

The Matchup

This was a MLB Baseball game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Cleveland Guardians. Played at Progressive Field. Starting pitchers: Reid Detmers for LAA, Parker Messick for CLE. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.

Why We Took This Side

Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.

Looking Back

The Cleveland Guardians pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.83 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.16 expected runs.

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Frozen at pick time. Every number on this page (model prob, odds, signals, expert reference) reflects what was live at the moment the pick was generated. We don't backfill or massage these pages retroactively. The result column is from the official league box score. If you spot anything off, email us — we keep these honest because we have to.