Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Played at PNC Park. Starting pitchers: Aaron Nola for PHI, Braxton Ashcraft for PIT. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +2.77
- Bullpen quality: -0.31
- Platoon edge: -0.80
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Pittsburgh Pirates pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.54 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.29 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-15
- Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Won
- Indiana Fever Moneyline Lost
- Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline Lost
- San Antonio Spurs Moneyline Won
- Minnesota Timberwolves Run Line Lost