St. Louis Cardinals Run Line at -180
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and the St. Louis Cardinals. Played at Busch Stadium. Starting pitchers: Michael Wacha for KC, Dustin May for STL. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.17
- Bullpen quality: -0.32
- Framing edge: +0.29
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The St. Louis Cardinals pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.25 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.22 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-15
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