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● PICK PERMALINK · WON · 2026-05-15

Washington Nationals Run Line at -141

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals · MLB Baseball

Result Won
Model Prob 43.7%
Odds (American) -141

The Matchup

This was a MLB Baseball game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Washington Nationals. Played at Nationals Park. Starting pitchers: Shane Baz for BAL, Zack Littell for WSH. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.

Why We Took This Side

Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.

Looking Back

The Washington Nationals pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.59 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.52 expected runs.

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Frozen at pick time. Every number on this page (model prob, odds, signals, expert reference) reflects what was live at the moment the pick was generated. We don't backfill or massage these pages retroactively. The result column is from the official league box score. If you spot anything off, email us — we keep these honest because we have to.