San Diego Padres Run Line at +159
San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the San Diego Padres and the Seattle Mariners. Played at T-Mobile Park. Starting pitchers: Lucas Giolito for SD, George Kirby for SEA. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +2.88
- Bullpen quality: -0.46
- Platoon edge: -0.36
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The San Diego Padres pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +2.16 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.49 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-17
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- Minnesota Lynx Moneyline Lost
- Los Angeles Sparks Moneyline Lost
- Miami Marlins Run Line Lost
- Washington Nationals Run Line Lost