New York Mets Run Line at -141
New York Yankees at New York Mets · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. Played at Citi Field. Starting pitchers: Elmer Rodriguez for NYY, Freddy Peralta for NYM. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.70
- Bullpen quality: -0.18
- Platoon edge: -0.28
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Mets pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +3.33 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.17 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-17
- Indiana Fever Moneyline Won
- Minnesota Lynx Moneyline Lost
- Los Angeles Sparks Moneyline Lost
- Miami Marlins Run Line Lost
- Washington Nationals Run Line Lost