Kansas City Royals Run Line at -141
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the Kansas City Royals. Played at Kauffman Stadium. Starting pitchers: Ranger Suarez for BOS, Bailey Falter for KC. Market: Run Line. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.28
- Platoon edge: -0.68
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): +0.31
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Kansas City Royals pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.53 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter.
Other picks from 2026-05-19
- Phoenix Mercury Moneyline Lost
- Baltimore Orioles Run Line Lost
- Washington Nationals Run Line Won
- San Diego Padres Run Line Won
- Miami Marlins Run Line Lost