New York Mets Moneyline
New York Mets at Washington Nationals · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals. Played at Nationals Park. Starting pitchers: Zach Thornton for NYM, Zack Littell for WSH. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +7.59
- Bullpen quality: -0.47
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): +0.70
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 50.9% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Mets pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.59 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.52 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 50.9% chance. Our model had it at 0.0%.
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