New York Mets Total (Over/Under) at -110
New York Mets at Washington Nationals · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals. Played at Nationals Park. Starting pitchers: David Peterson for NYM, Cade Cavalli for WSH. Market: Total (Over/Under). Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.15
- Bullpen quality: -0.53
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): +0.67
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Mets pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.3 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.53 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-05-21
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- Minnesota Lynx Moneyline Won
- New York Yankees Total (Over/Under) Won
- Phoenix Mercury Moneyline Lost
- Detroit Tigers Total (Over/Under) Lost