Houston Astros Total (Over/Under) at -110
Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Chicago Cubs. Played at Wrigley Field. Starting pitchers: Spencer Arrighetti for HOU, Jameson Taillon for CHC. Market: Total (Over/Under). Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.58
- Outs Above Average (defense): +0.32
- Framing edge: -0.25
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Houston Astros pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.02 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter.
Other picks from 2026-05-22
- Colorado Avalanche Moneyline Lost
- Boston Red Sox Total (Over/Under) Won
- Seattle Mariners Total (Over/Under) Lost
- San Diego Padres Total (Over/Under) Lost
- Philadelphia Phillies Total (Over/Under) Won