New York Mets Total (Over/Under) at -110

New York Mets at Miami Marlins · MLB Baseball

Result Won

Model Prob 56.0%

Odds (American) -110

Units P/L+0.91u

The Matchup

This was a MLB Baseball game between the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins. Played at loanDepot park. Starting pitchers: Freddy Peralta for NYM, Max Meyer for MIA. Market: Total (Over/Under). Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.

Why We Took This Side

FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.92
Platoon edge: -0.72
Rolling wOBA (offense form): +0.48

Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.

Looking Back

The New York Mets pick covered. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.22 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter.

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Frozen at pick time. Every number on this page (model prob, odds, signals, expert reference) reflects what was live at the moment the pick was generated. We don't backfill or massage these pages retroactively. The result column is from the official league box score. If you spot anything off, email us — we keep these honest because we have to.