Miami Marlins Moneyline at -105
Miami Marlins at New York Mets · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets. Played at Citi Field. Starting pitchers: Max Meyer for MIA, Freddy Peralta for NYM. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.70
- Platoon edge: +0.72
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.53
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 43.6% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Miami Marlins pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.22 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 43.6% chance. Our model had it at 76.8%. Closing line value: -2.3pp (below the closing market). Positive CLV is the leading indicator long-term, regardless of this single result.