NRFI Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Washington Nationals. Played at Nationals Park. Starting pitchers: Braxton Ashcraft for PIT, Carson Palmquist for WSH. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- Signal snapshot was not captured on this pick (legacy entry).
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The NRFI pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.74 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.42 expected runs.
Other picks from 2026-07-04
- Seattle Mariners ML Lost
- New York Yankees ML Won
- Cincinnati Reds ML Won
- YRFI ML Won
- YRFI ML Won