Detroit Tigers Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Detroit Tigers. Played at Comerica Park. Starting pitchers: Kyle Bradish for BAL, Keider Montero for DET. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.16
- Platoon edge: -0.20
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 47.5% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Detroit Tigers pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.05 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 47.5% chance. Our model had it at 46.8%.