New York Yankees Moneyline
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the New York Yankees and the Chicago White Sox. Played at Rate Field. Starting pitchers: Ryan Weathers for NYY, Sean Burke for CHW. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.13
- Platoon edge: -1.48
- Framing edge: -0.53
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 46.0% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Yankees pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.25 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.15 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 46.0% chance. Our model had it at 53.4%.
Other picks from 2026-07-30
- Tampa Bay Rays ML Won
- Minnesota Twins ML Won
- Chicago Cubs ML Lost
- Atlanta Braves ML Lost
- New York Mets ML Won