New York Mets Moneyline
Miami Marlins at New York Mets · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets. Played at Citi Field. Starting pitchers: Eury Perez for MIA, Nolan McLean for NYM. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +2.62
- Platoon edge: +0.72
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.22
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 59.8% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Mets pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.66 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 59.8% chance. Our model had it at 57.1%.
Other picks from 2026-07-30
- Tampa Bay Rays ML Won
- Minnesota Twins ML Won
- New York Yankees ML Lost
- Chicago Cubs ML Lost
- Atlanta Braves ML Lost