New York Mets Moneyline
Miami Marlins at New York Mets · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets. Played at Citi Field. Starting pitchers: Tyler Phillips for MIA, Zac Thornton for NYM. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +5.18
- Platoon edge: +0.60
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.29
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 53.7% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Mets pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.83 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 53.7% chance. Our model had it at 57.4%.
Other picks from 2026-08-01
- New York Liberty Moneyline Won
- Toronto Blue Jays ML Lost
- Tampa Bay Rays ML Won
- Seattle Mariners ML Lost
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML Lost