Miami Marlins Moneyline at -115
Miami Marlins at New York Mets · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets. Played at Citi Field. Starting pitchers: Sandy Alcantara for MIA, Robert Stock for NYM. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +5.20
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.29
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.50
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 46.9% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Miami Marlins pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.97 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 46.9% chance. Our model had it at 65.6%. Closing line value: -1.0pp (below the closing market). Positive CLV is the leading indicator long-term, regardless of this single result.
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