Baltimore Orioles Moneyline at -183
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Baltimore Orioles. Played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Starting pitchers: Ryan Johnson for LAA, Brandon Young for BAL. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.67
- Platoon edge: +0.80
- Outs Above Average (defense): +0.20
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 69.4% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Baltimore Orioles pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.99 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.16 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 69.4% chance. Our model had it at 66.6%. Closing line value: -1.21pp (below the closing market). Positive CLV is the leading indicator long-term, regardless of this single result.
Other picks from 2026-08-06
- Baltimore Orioles ML Lost
- Cincinnati Reds ML Won
- New York Mets ML Lost
- Milwaukee Brewers ML Won
- Toronto Blue Jays ML Won