New York Mets Moneyline
New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the New York Mets and the Cleveland Guardians. Played at Progressive Field. Starting pitchers: Nolan McLean for NYM, Foster Griffin for CLE. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.96
- Platoon edge: -0.40
- Outs Above Average (defense): +0.70
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 49.8% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Mets pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.34 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 49.8% chance. Our model had it at 64.8%.
Other picks from 2026-08-06
- Baltimore Orioles ML Lost
- Cincinnati Reds ML Won
- Milwaukee Brewers ML Won
- Toronto Blue Jays ML Won
- Seattle Mariners ML Lost