Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays. Played at Rogers Centre. Starting pitchers: Sonny Gray for BOS, Jameson Taillon for TOR. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.58
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.45
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 60.5% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Boston Red Sox pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.44 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 60.5% chance. Our model had it at 51.0%.
Other picks from 2026-08-10
- Atlanta Braves ML Lost
- Baltimore Orioles ML Won
- Philadelphia Phillies ML Lost
- Texas Rangers ML Lost
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML Won