Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline at -210
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies. Played at Citizens Bank Park. Starting pitchers: Cade Gibson for MIA, Zack Wheeler for PHI. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.00
- Platoon edge: +0.92
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.48
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 67.4% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Philadelphia Phillies pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.54 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 67.4% chance. Our model had it at 69.9%. Closing line value: -1.06pp (below the closing market). Positive CLV is the leading indicator long-term, regardless of this single result.
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