Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Boston Red Sox. Played at Fenway Park. Starting pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt for ARI, Payton Tolle for BOS. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.21
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 56.8% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Boston Red Sox pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.4 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 56.8% chance. Our model had it at 58.3%.
Other picks from 2026-08-19
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