Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies. Played at Citizens Bank Park. Starting pitchers: Hunter Dobbins for STL, Jesus Luzardo for PHI. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +2.58
- Bullpen quality: +0.28
- Platoon edge: +0.32
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 62.7% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Philadelphia Phillies pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.98 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.30 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 62.7% chance. Our model had it at 59.5%.
Other picks from 2026-08-21
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