Miami Marlins Moneyline
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins. Played at loanDepot park. Starting pitchers: Jake Irvin for WSH, Eury Perez for MIA. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.28
- Bullpen quality: +0.49
- Platoon edge: -0.32
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 66.3% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Miami Marlins pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.02 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.48 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 66.3% chance. Our model had it at 51.1%.
Other picks from 2026-08-22
- New York Yankees ML Lost
- Milwaukee Brewers ML Lost
- Philadelphia Phillies ML Won
- Tampa Bay Rays ML Won
- Texas Rangers ML Won