Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners. Played at T-Mobile Park. Starting pitchers: Shota Imanaga for CHC, Bryce Miller for SEA. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.65
- Platoon edge: -0.32
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.39
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 57.6% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Chicago Cubs pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.19 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 57.6% chance. Our model had it at 56.1%.
Other picks from 2026-08-23
- Philadelphia Phillies ML Won
- Baltimore Orioles ML Won
- New York Yankees ML Won
- Miami Marlins ML Lost
- Houston Astros ML Won