Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Detroit Tigers. Played at Comerica Park. Starting pitchers: Drew Rasmussen for TB, Framber Valdez for DET. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.37
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.32
- Framing edge: -0.56
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 49.2% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Tampa Bay Rays pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.47 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 49.2% chance. Our model had it at 50.5%.
Other picks from 2026-08-24
- Boston Red Sox ML Won
- Washington Nationals ML Won
- Chicago White Sox ML Won
- Cleveland Guardians ML Won
- Chicago Cubs ML Lost