San Francisco Giants Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants. Played at Oracle Park. Starting pitchers: Kohl Drake for ARI, Blade Tidwell for SF. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.24
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.68
- Framing edge: +0.27
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 42.0% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The San Francisco Giants pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.23 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 42.0% chance. Our model had it at 51.6%.
Other picks from 2026-08-28
- Chicago Cubs ML Won
- Los Angeles Dodgers ML Won
- Miami Marlins ML Won
- Houston Astros ML Won
- Cleveland Guardians ML Won