New York Mets Moneyline
Houston Astros at New York Mets · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Houston Astros and the New York Mets. Played at Citi Field. Starting pitchers: Bennett Sousa for HOU, Nolan McLean for NYM. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +2.62
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.29
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.42
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 66.3% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Mets pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball (and probability) both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +2.08 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 66.3% chance. Our model had it at 55.9%.
Other picks from 2026-08-29
- New York Yankees ML Won
- Los Angeles Dodgers ML Won
- Chicago White Sox ML Won
- St. Louis Cardinals ML Lost
- Chicago Cubs ML Won