Miami Marlins Moneyline
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the Kansas City Royals. Played at Kauffman Stadium. Starting pitchers: Eury Perez for MIA, Noah Cameron for KC. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.36
- Bullpen quality: -0.27
- Platoon edge: +0.44
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 50.3% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Miami Marlins pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -0.08 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the away side by 0.27 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 50.3% chance. Our model had it at 57.5%.
Other picks from 2026-09-02
- San Diego Padres ML Won
- Atlanta Braves ML Won
- Texas Rangers ML Won
- Baltimore Orioles ML Lost
- Philadelphia Phillies ML Lost