Houston Astros Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Houston Astros. Played at Daikin Park. Starting pitchers: Merrill Kelly for ARI, Cristian Javier for HOU. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +7.45
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): +0.30
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.46
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 53.0% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Houston Astros pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.03 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 53.0% chance. Our model had it at 54.3%.
Other picks from 2026-09-04
- Cleveland Guardians ML Won
- Milwaukee Brewers ML Won
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML Won
- Atlanta Braves ML Won
- Boston Red Sox ML Lost