New York Yankees Moneyline
New York Yankees at San Diego Padres · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the New York Yankees and the San Diego Padres. Played at Petco Park. Starting pitchers: Carlos Rodon for NYY, Robbie Ray for SD. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.23
- Platoon edge: -0.72
- Framing edge: -0.31
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 46.0% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Yankees pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.83 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 46.0% chance. Our model had it at 53.4%.
Other picks from 2026-09-05
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