Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Tampa Bay Rays. Played at Tropicana Field. Starting pitchers: Peter Lambert for HOU, Ian Seymour for TB. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +4.43
- Platoon edge: -0.60
- Framing edge: +0.29
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 54.7% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Tampa Bay Rays pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -1.8 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 54.7% chance. Our model had it at 65.8%.
Other picks from 2026-09-12
- Detroit Tigers ML Won
- New York Yankees ML Won
- Chicago Cubs ML Lost
- Toronto Blue Jays ML Lost
- Washington Nationals ML Lost