Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Tampa Bay Rays. Played at Tropicana Field. Starting pitchers: Hayden Wesneski for HOU, Freddy Peralta for TB. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.70
- Platoon edge: -0.28
- Framing edge: +0.29
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 52.8% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Tampa Bay Rays pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.38 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 52.8% chance. Our model had it at 58.5%.
Other picks from 2026-09-13
- Detroit Tigers ML Won
- Washington Nationals ML Lost
- New York Yankees ML Lost
- Atlanta Braves ML Won
- Toronto Blue Jays ML Won