Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Miami Marlins and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Played at Chase Field. Starting pitchers: Sandy Alcantara for MIA, Corbin Burnes for ARI. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +7.29
- Platoon edge: +0.64
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.25
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 56.8% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Arizona Diamondbacks pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -2.84 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 56.8% chance. Our model had it at 58.9%.
Other picks from 2026-09-14
- Cleveland Guardians ML Won
- Los Angeles Dodgers ML Won
- Toronto Blue Jays ML Lost
- New York Mets ML Lost
- Chicago Cubs ML Won