Chicago White Sox Moneyline
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Detroit Tigers and the Chicago White Sox. Played at Rate Field. Starting pitchers: Troy Melton for DET, Davis Martin for CHW. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.56
- Platoon edge: -0.88
- Outs Above Average (defense): +1.00
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 49.8% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Chicago White Sox pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +2.01 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 49.8% chance. Our model had it at 54.8%.
Other picks from 2026-09-20
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- Pittsburgh Pirates ML Lost
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- Chicago Cubs ML Won