St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals. Played at Busch Stadium. Starting pitchers: Jake Irvin for WSH, Quinn Mathews for STL. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +6.41
- Bullpen quality: +0.26
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): -0.39
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 60.6% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The St. Louis Cardinals pick cashed. The model's edge on this matchup played out as projected. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of -2.15 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. Bullpen quality favored the home side by 0.26 expected runs. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 60.6% chance. Our model had it at 60.6%.
Other picks from 2026-09-20
- Philadelphia Phillies ML Lost
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML Lost
- Cleveland Guardians ML Lost
- Tampa Bay Rays ML Lost
- Chicago Cubs ML Won