Houston Astros Moneyline
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros. Played at Daikin Park. Starting pitchers: Sean Burke for CHW, Hunter Brown for HOU. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.32
- Platoon edge: +0.88
- Outs Above Average (defense): -0.34
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 52.8% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The Houston Astros pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +1.49 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 52.8% chance. Our model had it at 50.8%.
Other picks from 2026-09-30
- Philadelphia Phillies ML Lost
- New York Yankees ML Lost
- San Diego Padres ML Lost
- NRFI ML Lost
- NRFI ML Lost