New York Yankees Moneyline
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees · MLB Baseball
The Matchup
This was a MLB Baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. Played at Yankee Stadium. Starting pitchers: Sonny Gray for BOS, Max Fried for NYY. Market: Moneyline. Pick was logged at the time the lines were posted; every model probability and signal value frozen on this page reflects that moment, not retrospective data.
Why We Took This Side
- FIP edge (home starter quality): +3.91
- Rolling wOBA (offense form): +0.23
- Framing edge: +0.23
- External: ESPN matchup predictor 58.7% on our side
Each driver above is a numerical signal feed-in to the model at pick time. Strongly positive values support the side we took; near-zero values mean that input had no opinion. Read more in the methodology.
Looking Back
The New York Yankees pick lost. The model's signals pointed this way at the time, but baseball — and probability — both reserve the right to disagree on any given night. The pitching matchup at the time showed a FIP edge of +0.23 (lower is better) in favor of the home starter. For comparison, ESPN's matchup predictor gave this side a 58.7% chance. Our model had it at 52.2%.
Other picks from 2026-09-30
- Philadelphia Phillies ML Lost
- Houston Astros ML Lost
- San Diego Padres ML Lost
- NRFI ML Lost
- NRFI ML Lost